How much of Settlers of Catan is Luck?

At Skillshare, we like playing board and card games. I used to primarily play poker, but since last year, have been playing Settlers of Catan a lot. It’s fun because it’s a combination of luck and strategy (like Monopoly, which is still one of my favorite board games).

In a constant attempt to improve, I’ve always asked myself:

  • What are the best resources to try and get? In early game? In late game?
  • How do you determine the optimal, if it exists, place to place the robber?
  • How much of the game is based on luck?

(the last question usually comes up when someone who didn’t win says “This game sucks. It has too much luck involved!” which I usually reply in jest with “Next time roll better.”)

Settlers of Catan obviously depends a lot on dice odds. Fortunately, the game has made it easy for newbies by using dots on each hex piece:

2,12: 1 dot (worst odds)
3,11: 2 dots
…
6, 8: 5 dots

For those of you familiar with Craps (another one of my favorite games) or just probability in general, this is easy to understand. Thus, ignoring other factors and game-specific restrictions, in general you should place your first two settlements on an intersection that has the highest probability (or sum of dots). Simple enough.

Further, you can generalize that you should place the robber on a hex piece that would deal the highest expected “damage”:

E[X] = D(S + 2C)

where D = # dots, S = # settlements, C = # cities

Beyond this simple math, a lot of other factors are involved:

  • leveraging ports
  • early vs late game strategy, especially in terms of resources needed
  • distribution of resources (you don’t necessarily want your first two settlements to get you 5,6,8 and 5,6,8)
  • location of settlements and roads relative to other players’ (for both offense and defense)
  • bonuses, like Longest Road
  • strategic trades and psychology
  • when to go for Development Cards

etc.

So how much luck really is involved in Settlers of Catan? Internally here at Skillshare, we’ve been debating this a lot. The last time we played, the winner won because more 4s and 11s were rolled than 6s and 8s. I also remember another time when a player went from a distant last place and ended up winning all because of a Monopoly card he played near the end.

Ultimately, understanding the probability behind the game is important, but just like most games, playing against other players is the best way to improve. I’d be interested in hearing what you guys think, and if you’re located in NYC, I’d like to meet more Catan fans to discuss this topic.

In fact, Skillshare is organizing a 16-person tournament on Feb 29th: http://www.skillshare.com/catan

Game on!

UPDATE: you can join our discussion on Hacker News